So, I missed a video broadcast of some Purcell from the Styriarte Festival yesterday because, not knowing that it was going to be broadcast, I had gotten ballet tickets. Bummer. (The ballet wasn’t bad, though – it was the American Ballet Theater doing Giselle, and the second half was more than worth the price of admission. But why do ballet sets always have to be so twee? I think I’d enjoy it more if it was a little more abstract.)
But it has come to my attention that the Purcell will be broadcast via Ö1 radio on 12 July. When I have tickets to a kabuki performance. No joke. What are the odds of that? (It’s actually trickier than I first thought to figure this out. The probability of two independent events with an equal likelihood of happening on any day in a particular year happening on the same particular day is 1/365 times 1/365. But that is not quite what is happening here. All the events have to do is happen on the same day, not any one particular day – and this has to happen twice.
Although I suppose we could set it up as “given that these two broadcasts are definitely happening June 21 and July 12, and given that I could in theory buy a ballet or theater ticket for any day of the year – just to generalize – we could set it up as, if I buy two theater tickets in 2014, how likely is it that I would buy a theater ticket for each of those days. Which brings us back to the 1/365 times (odds of my buying a ticket for June 21) times 1/365 (odds of me buying a ticket for July 12), I guess. Which is 1/133,225 = very, very small.) Although this assumes that the two tickets are independent, and that I could buy two for the same day. Which I am more than capable of doing, depending on circumstances.
But numbers aside, I believe that Ö1 usually archives their broadcasts for a week or so, so even if I miss it on the 12th because of the kabuki, I’ll catch it eventually. (Or maybe a bootleg of the video broadcast will pop up somewhere . . . a girl can dream, I guess.)